Here’s a disturbing thought. Above all, the New Republican Party lives for graft, guns, White Supremacy, and a Republican coup. Whatever they say, that’s what they do. So, I wonder how deep that rot goes. Are they willing to sabotage Ukraine for political advantage? Think about it. Suppose Europe explodes in violence, killing thousands of innocent people. The GOP could easily win a majority of both houses in the 2022 midterms by shrieking about how “Inept Biden fails in Europe!” Trump is already queueing up that strategy for 2024.

Republicans Profit from Sabotage and Chaos

Republicans always benefit from the disasters they create. I’m not happy, but I can’t argue they don’t know what they’re doing. It works. That’s why Republicans have been delighted to hold the nation hostage to their whims. It’s not even subtle about it. The GOP has been gleefully throwing sand in our nation’s gears for decades, then crowing about the political advantage they’ll gain. Consider their many domestic obstructionist debacles: all the debt ceiling defaults, the federal government shutdowns, a dysfunctional Senate frozen in arabesque, ignoring disasters, and so on. The GOP understands our short attention span. When things go wrong, they know that nobody will remember much. Americans will simply blame the party in power.

Yes, we’re stupid that way.

Is the Brink of War a Political Opportunity?

Consider the escalating tension on the Ukrainian/Russian border. Trump was happy to threaten Ukraine’s security to get a tiny election boost. He undercut a vast, strategically critical nation and an American ally. Didn’t matter. Trump had full GOP support, before and after his tawdry sabotage. (The new Republican Party is as blindly authoritarian as the old GOP was stubbornly anti-Russian.) So, how will this new Trump-centric Republican Party look at an expanded Russian war?

I’m concerned. We already know our Republican leaders will undercut American diplomacy. Worse, it would be easy. Just have a few critical GOP voices vaguely imply they don’t fully support Ukraine that much. And they’ve already started doing that. Nobody has to make specific promises. Leave room for later political denials. Just waffle a bit, publicly. Putin will see American opposition softening, and with that, we’ve let slip the dogs of war.

Agression’s Many Faces

Putin has so many options. He’s already threatening to shut down most of Europe’s gas supply. That’s a problem In midwinter. Militarily, crossing the Ukrainian/Crimean border is just the first option. Suppose uniformed Russian troops moved into the Dunbar region? They could solidify and possibly expand that de facto invasion. Or Russian forces could expand down the Black Sea coastline. If Russa gets to Odesa, they’ve cut off Ukraine’s shipping. Putin could always send more troops into Belarus to the north. They already welcome Russian forces. From Belarus, Putin could threaten Ukraine from the north. And the troops would terrify the bordering NATO member states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. As icing on the cake, Putin would solidify his re-annexation of Belarus.

Any of these options give Putin significant advantages. Better still (for him), they’re asymmetrical advantages: Putin wins a lot from a relatively minor investment. And he’s back to being the center of the political universe, leaving the NATO allies bickering and indecisive in the background. He wins and wins, and wins some more.

The UnAmerican Party

Will the Republican Party sabotage Ukraine? Are Trump’s firebrands willing to amplify an international crisis in Europe for venial political ends?

Recently, ex-President Donald Trump proudly declared, “What’s happening with Russia and Ukraine would never have happened under the Trump administration. Not even a possibility!”

“Republicans take sides for a Trump-fueled tug of war over Russia,” CNN, Jan. 28, 2022

Uh… Maybe? We already know they’ve repeatedly threatened to force an American default. We’re talking trillions of dollars lost. They’re willing to dismantle entire agencies (USDA, IRS, etc.) for their patrons. It’s not as if Republicans show much concern about international consequences. We’ve all seen Republicans sacrifice American lives and treasure for their short-term political advantage.

After Trump, simple treason doesn’t seem to be a red line to the GOP. Not anymore.