The Transition Integrity Project (TIP) is wargaming the election, and their report, Preventing a Disrupted Presidential Election and Transition, is imaginative, alarming, plausible, and frightening as hell. Thankfully, they also use the results to suggest ways we can bolster our country to soften the worst vulnerabilities. Law Professor Rosa Brooks convened the Project, a group of around a hundred ex-politicians, pollsters, strategists, journalists, and academics.
I like the chattier, informal version Professor Brooks wrote in the Washington Post: “What’s the worst that could happen?” That’s a good place to start. The Bendik Kaltenborn illustration at the top is worth the trip all by itself.
The article is wild stuff. I’m embarrassed to admit it, but the TIP makes my predictions look tepid. They are thinking outside the box that limits my mind. Here’s a quote from the Washington Post article:
Picture this:
On the morning of Election Day, false stories appear online claiming that Biden has been hospitalized with a life-threatening heart attack and the election has been delayed. Every mainstream news organization reports that the rumors are unfounded, but many Biden supporters, confused by the bogus claims, stay home.
Still, by late that night, most major networks have called the election for Biden: The former vice president has won key states and has a slender lead in the national popular vote, and polling experts predict that his lead will grow substantially as Western states count an unusually high number of mail-in ballots. The electoral college looks secure for Biden, too.
But Trump refuses to concede, alleging on Twitter that “MILLIONS of illegal ALIENS and DEAD PEOPLE” have voted in large numbers and that the uncounted ballots are all “FAKE VOTES!!!” Social media fills with posts from Trump supporters alleging that the election has been “stolen” in a “Deep State coup,” and Trump-friendly pundits on Fox News and OAN echo the message.
Soon, Attorney General William P. Barr opens an investigation into unsubstantiated allegations of massive vote-by-mail fraud and ties between Democratic officials and antifa. In Michigan and Wisconsin, where Biden has won the official vote and Democratic governors have certified slates of pro-Biden electors, the Trump campaign persuades Republican-controlled legislatures to send rival pro-Trump slates to Congress for the electoral college vote.
The next week is chaotic: A list of Michigan and Wisconsin electors for Biden circulates on right-wing social media, including photos, home addresses and false claims that scores of them are in the pay of billionaire George Soros or have been linked to child sex-trafficking rings.
Massive pro-Biden street protests begin, demanding that Trump concede. The president tweets that “REAL PATRIOTS MUST SHOW THESE ANTIFA TERRORISTS THAT CITIZENS WHO LOVE THE 2ND AMENDMENT WILL NEVER LET THEM STEAL THIS ELECTION!!!” Around the nation, violent clashes erupt. Several people are injured and killed in multiple incidents, though reports conflict about their identities and who started the violence.
Meanwhile, Trump declares that “UNLESS THIS CARNAGE ENDS NOW,” he will invoke the Insurrection Act and send “Our INCREDIBLY POWERFUL MILITARY and their OMINOUS WEAPONS” into the streets to “Teach these ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORISTS A LESSON.” At the Pentagon, the Joint Chiefs of Staff convene a hurried meeting to discuss the crisis.
And it’s not even Thanksgiving yet.
“What’s the worst that could happen?” Washington Post, Sept. 3, 2020.
Wow. Seriously, I love this stuff, even if it scares me spitless. I need to get more imaginative the next time I’m wargaming the election.
And it’s not all doom and gloom. The Washington Post article ends with suggestions, and the TIP report has a long Recommendations section. I recommend giving them a look. We all need to prepare. We already know this won’t be a regular election.
Weirdly, the Post article disappeared from their website almost immediately. I had to search to find it. I’m trying not to read too much into that. Maybe they didn’t want to give the Trump people too many ideas.
