Well, nobody can claim this is a surprise. Russian President Vladimir Putin just ordered the third Ukrainian invasion, starting a new Russo-Ukrainian war. For his justification, Putin didn’t stop at rejecting the last 2014 peace settlement (after the first two Russo-Ukrainian invasions of Crimea and eastern Ukraine). Putin went much further, rejecting the agreements that governed the breakup of the old Soviet Union.

The only recent question was whether Russia would stage a large attack or nibble Ukraine to death. Unfortunately, even after today’s step, we still don’t know how the New Russo-Ukrainian War will play out. The new Russian troops Putin just ordered into Ukraine could be that first nibble. Or Putin could be restaging his army for a massive military push.

Militarily, sending Russian troops into the fake ‘breakaway’ regions was a low-risk move. There have been thousands of ‘mystery’ Russian troops posted in the regions since 2014. Still, politically, it was an act of war. This threatens to become the largest military action in Europe since World War II.

So far, President Joe Biden has initiated trade restrictions on the two ‘breakaway’ regions in eastern Ukraine. Yes, those sanctions are so trivial, they are almost literally the least he could do. Since this wasn’t a surprise for Biden, I’m wondering at the tepid response. Maybe there will be more tomorrow.

But if Russian troops have crossed the border, or if they do so now, this is the beginning of the new Russo-Ukrainian War, and I admit, it frightens me.