Today, I watched the Senate hearings digging into the January sixth riot and insurrection. My first impression? Everyone was lying. Oddly, few people are making a big deal about that. This evening, I’m listening to the pundits. They opine, “Did they think that White people couldn’t riot?” “Did they hold back because they worried about the bad press?” The worst error the pundits allow is that our officials worried they’d offend Trump. But what if they failed because they wanted the insurrection to win? We don’t know if that’s true, but it’s possible, and even the possibility is ominous. Why aren’t we talking more about that?
Current Facts
On Jan. 6th, rioters overran the Capitol, trying to overthrow an election, and with it, our democracy. That’s the key part. The U.S. Capitol Police leaders who planned for the Capitol’s defense failed. They didn’t staff enough officers, they didn’t issue enough riot equipment, and they didn’t have a documented backup plan. They didn’t coordinate support with the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Police or D.C. National Guard, as was the usual practice. During the storming, and despite the riots on every network, the Army delayed their National Guard authorization for hours. The National Guard was instructed not to arrest people or restrain the rioters in any way. Rioters successfully trashed the Capitol, yet the U.S. Capitol Police, the Metropolitan Police Department, and the National Guard allowed the rioters to disperse without arrest or even identification.
In today’s testimony, the Capitol Police, the Senate Seargent-at-Arms, the House Seargent-At-Arms, and the National Guard all told stories that contradicted each other. Despite testifying to the Senate under oath, none of them told us the full truth.
The possibilities?
It’s time for a review. The U.S. Capitol Police leadership didn’t schedule enough staff for the event. The USCP didn’t equip their officers for the riots. Unlike earlier demonstrations, they didn’t plan any fallback plans with the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department or the National Guard. Here are all the options I can see for why:
Incompetence
Were all the highly paid people charged with planning the Capitol defenses just bad at it? If they were completely incompetent, it could explain why they allowed the rioters to sack the Capitol building.
What are the odds that this is true? Close to zero. These same people have been planning public events and demonstrations for years now. They didn’t make any of these same mistakes for the Women’s March, Black Lives Matter, March for our Lives, or the other recent demonstrations. The Capitol Police did not follow the normal planning. The DCMPD even called the USCP, wondering why the Capitol Police hadn’t filed the expected requests. USCP leadership confirmed that backup wouldn’t be necessary.
Ignorance, part 1
Perhaps all the highly paid people charged with planning the Capitol defenses had no idea there might be violence. The National Guard leadership would have to be similarly ignorant, since they didn’t prepare, either. Interestingly, the Capitol Chief swore under oath that he hadn’t received the FBI warnings about violence.
Odds? Zero again. Everyone was worried. All the papers had been reporting on the possibility of riots that day. The D.C. Mayor requested that D.C. residents avoid the area around the rally entirely because violence seemed almost certain. The FBI issued more than one alert. And the USCP leader insists that someone must have held the FBI warning from him. No, that isn’t a credible option. The people who claim they were surprised cannot be telling the truth.
USCP and the National Guard were trying to protect people’s civil rights
Some people suggest the highly paid people charged with planning the Capitol defenses were just trying to protect people’s civil rights. After the disastrous Lafayette Square fiasco and subsequent criticism, they were gun-shy about using too much force.
Odds? Zero. The Capitol Police were defending a fixed position from rioters, not trying to overwhelm legal protesters in a park. Completely different stuff. Besides, it would be a terrible scandal if the planners abrogated their primary goal – protecting the Capitol and the people inside it – because they might look bad.
Ignorance, part 2
This argues that the highly paid people charged with planning the Capitol defenses didn’t believe the crowds would become violent because they were White Republicans and not Black Lives Matter protesters.
Odds? It’s only slightly possible. We know that every Police force struggles with embedded racism. Yes, most police are good and honorable people doing a tough job. At the same time, every police force also coddles their racists and thugs. The unions defend every action. Cops won’t testify against another cop. Prosecutors soft-pedal prosecutions. That said, we’re talking about the planners, not the rank-and-file. The leaders were fully aware of the possibility. They’d been informed. They knew the risks. After Charlottesville, everyone knew the drill. Many MAGA supports would be armed to some level: flagpoles, chemical weapons, armor, riot gear, clubs.
Fear of Criticism
The highly paid people charged with planning the Capitol defenses knew there might be violence but chose not to equip their people or plan fallback options because they were afraid that Trump wouldn’t like it.
Odds? Weirdly possible. And it would be a serious dereliction of their primary duty: protecting the Capitol campus and the people in it. It would also be aiding and abetting insurrectionists. If that were true, we should put those people in jail.
They wanted the insurrection to win.
Suppose some of the highly paid people charged with planning the Capitol defenses deliberately set up the Capitol Police forces to lose. They sympathized with the insurrection, so they understaffed, underequipped, slow-walked any reinforcements, and dictated USCP and National Guard terms of engagement to ensure the perpetrators could walk away without even restrained or even identified. They did all that because they wanted the insurrection to win.
Odds? Good, I’m ashamed to say. As weird as it sounds, this remains the only suggestion that isn’t contradicted by the facts we already know.
What if our Leaders Want the Insurrection to Win?
The Capitol Police failed to defend our Capitol and the Senators and Congresspeople from angry rioters calling for murder. The National Guard wasn’t authorized to support the police for hours. What will we do if they deliberately failed because they wanted the insurrection to win? I hope it’s not true, but we must consider the possibility. We can’t leave traitors among the leadership of the police and the military.
