We were wondering whether Trump would pardon Paul Manafort.  And while he isn’t yet, Trump may be trying an end run.  Instead of pardoning Manafort, Trump may be trying to buy Manafort’s debt.  That would target the one person who scares Manafort more than Special Counsel Robert Mueller.  And it might work.

Let’s get all these colorful characters on the page.  First, of course, is douchebag number one: Russian President-for-life Vladimir Putin.  Everything revolves around him.

Next up is Oleg Deripaska, the aluminum magnate Russian oligarch and a close buddy to Putin.  Yes, all the oligarchs are ‘close to Putin.’  Putin created them, and they exist at his whim.  That said, Deripaska and Putin are especially close.  Deripaska was at one point purported to be Russia’s richest man, worth $28 billion.  Since then, he’s fallen to only $5 billion after the 2007 economic collapse.  Presumably, that leaves him a little cranky.  Interestingly, Deripaska is also a citizen of Cyprus, the island of money launderers.  That’s where Paul Manafort does most of his off-the-books banking.

Douchebag number 3 is Viktor Yanukovych, another pro-Russian, pro-Putin toady.  His 2004 run for the Ukrainian presidency was so corrupt it caused the Orange Revolution there, overturning his false victory.  Nonetheless, Yanukovych hung in.  Yanukovych became the Ukrainian Prime Minister and in 2010, President of Ukraine.  Yanukovych did everything he could to turn Ukraine away from the east and NATO, and toward closer ties with Russia (even making Russian the second Ukrainian language).  Yanukovych was also actively stripping the Ukraine of as much money as he could carry.  Notoriously, he built himself a private palace and even his own personal zoo on a salary of $2000 a month.  In 2014, the Ukrainian people drove Yanukovych from office, from power, and out of the country.  He moved to… (wait for it…) Barvikha, an exclusive district just outside Moscow.

Douchebag number 4 is Paul Manafort.  His primary job has been as an international consultant specializing in repairing the public image of horrific people.  He was too corrupt for the Bank of Cyprus, for god’s sake!  Manafort fit right in as Donald Trump’s campaign manager.  He’s deeply in debt, and as I write this, Manafort is on trial for fraud, money laundering, and tax evasion.  I expect more indictments, too.

Good on the characters so far?

Starting in 2010, super-rich oligarch Deripaska (douchebag 2) paid Manafort (douchebag 4) tens of millions of dollars to rebuild the US reputation of corrupt politician Yanukovych (douchebag 3).  Good work if you can get it, I suppose.  The American ambassador complained that Manafort was working to undermine U.S interests.  So, maybe not nice work, but if you have a certain moral flexibility, economically rewarding.  Anyway, in 2014, the Ukrainians drove Yanukovych (douchebag 3) all the way out of the Ukraine.  Oleg Deripaska now feels – quite strongly – that Manafort didn’t earn all that money.  Deripaska sued Manafort in US courts, back before sanctions, but it seems unlikely that it’ll end there.

This is ominous for Manafort.  Oleg is a very scary Russian oligarch who’s reportedly killed some of his enemies.  Oleg has the truly frightening Vladimir Putin at his back.  Hard not to notice how many enemies of Russia seem to be expiring these days.  Nobody without a death wish wants to be in debt to Deripaska.

Manafort has been working to get ‘right’ with Deripaska ever since.  And I suppose it’s good news that Oleg needs help.  Big on that list are the US sanctions, which include Deripaska by name.  He can’t visit the U.S. or our allies and none of his companies can trade with our companies.

And hey, guess what?  About a week ago, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin proposed ending the economic sanctions on the Russian company Rusal.  The Rusal aluminum company.  The Rusal aluminum company controlled by… you guessed it, Oleg Deripaska.  Yeah, that one.

Huh.  I wonder why Trump’s administration would suggest dropping economic sanctions just on Deripaska.  It’s only been four months.  Maybe Putin asked nicely?

Or maybe it was to make double-dog-certain that Manafort wouldn’t roll?  I mean, sure, Manafort will effectively get a life sentence out of it.  But it’ll come with room and board, and he might get pardoned later.  More importantly, with Trump holding Manafort’s paper, Big Paul doesn’t have to worry about being slowly dismembered by a team of Ukrainian thugs.  A big plus!