Trump seems increasingly likely to decertify Iran’s compliance with the Iranian nuclear deal.  The deal is good for Europe and good for the US, but it was a something Obama touched, so Trump wants it to die.  And he can, simply by decertifying Iran’s compliance.  You can see Trump’s trigger-finger start twitching when the topic comes up.  But if Trump does this thing, he will hurt America in important ways.

Look, I know that the New York Times is breaking their blockbuster story about Mueller’s 49 questions for Trump.  It’s a legitimately huge story, especially with the implications of the leak itself. That story is good reporting, important to America, colorfully lurid, and impossible to ignore.  Nonetheless, don’t let that noise completely distract us.  Trump is about to do something that increases the chances that millions of people will die in a nuclear holocaust while damaging America in ways we cannot fix later.

Nathan Standing frequently writes about lies and liars.  (I think maybe he’s got issues.)  Still, the questions of honesty and honor are central to any decertification.  The Iran nuclear deal requires the US President to say whether Iran is complying with the terms of the deal.  The President is required to certify whether Iran is doing what they promised.  It’s not a general question about whether Trump likes Iran, it’s a question of reality and truth: what happened.  The Iran deal includes solid and strong powers for investigating all the known nuclear sites, along with any other site the monitoring team might want to inspect.  They can get into any Iranian site – even their secret military sites – and on short notice.  (And no, you can’t move nuclear facilities in a month.)  The idea behind the certification requirement was that the US President could be depended on to be a fair witness to Iran’s actions.

It’s worth saying that Iran has been meeting all the treaty’s requirements.  Despite endless hysterical attacks from military hawks around the world, nobody has any evidence to any Iranian delinquencies or deficiencies about the treaty requirements.  We might not like them, and we might be suspicious, but Iran has done what we and our European allies required.

The problem is that President Trump doesn’t care what’s true.  Hell, we have no real evidence Trump even knows the difference between what he wants and, you know, reality.  So it will be no problem for Trump to swear that yellow is blue, dogs and tomatoes are both fruits, and Iran is simply not holding to the deal because of… reasons!

Just today, the White House issued an official announcement.  Iran, they wrote, “has a robust, clandestine nuclear weapons program that it has tried and failed to hide from the world and from its own people.”  The White House was announcing their justification for declaring war on Iran, NSA Michael Bolton’s wet dream for years.  Thankfully, the White House pulled that announcement back later in the day, saying they really meant “had,” not “has,” as in “Iran had a program….”  Since there’s no reason the White House would issue a screaming white paper about decades-old history, their ‘correction’ is hogwash.  Still, it means we’re not at war with Iran.  Not yet.  So, um… that’s good?  But does anyone doubt that Trump would start a hot, miserable, endless war with Iran, a war that would be filled with civilian terror and limitless suffering, if that might distract us from Mueller’s investigation and Stormy Daniels’ rolled up magazine?  Trump’s already committed treason for much less.

[See the Update below for more about this.]

But violating the Iran treaty would be a different kind of bad.  The American President would be openly lying about an established treaty.  Our allies will know we’re lying.  (They have the same inspection evidence we do.)  Our allies and our enemies will know that the United States will not hold to any treaty.  It won’t matter what the treaty says or requires, or any objective facts or conditions.  We will have shown everyone they cannot hold America to any treaty that lasts longer than one administration.

No nation will deal with us after that.  Why would they, when America won’t hold to anything, no matter the truth?  Trump will have hurt America, and it won’t be temporary.  OK, pretend Trump is a distant part of our sad history, and that we’ve elected a string of honorable and trustworthy Presidents.  That stain won’t be gone.  Every nation on earth will know that if we elect another scoundrel, that idiot can deny anything our nation negotiated.  Won’t matter if we’re talking about trade agreements, legal agreements, peace treaties, or IP duration.  They’ll know – know! – that each new administration might ditch any deal for any reason. Trump will have damaged America in ways we can’t repair for generations.

And Iran?  Blow the deal and they’d dump everything they own into a newly energized weapons program.  They know perfectly well that Trump only embraced North Korea after they built and tested nuclear bombs and intercontinental ballistic missiles.  Everyone will know what that means.

Personal lies matters.  Lying under oath matters.  Lying in America’s name matters more than I can describe.  If America cannot deal with other nations, they won’t take any risks with us.  America will be isolated and weakened.

Update (2018-05-01): The White House issued the statement on Iran because they were misquoting an empty accusation levied by Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu.  It was still old news that the White House didn’t read it closely and misquoted.