It’s so odd to read purportedly reputable news sources describe the Russian-Trump scandal as “culminating in Michael Flynn’s firing,” as if he alone was the only actor.

I mean, really. Honey, we’re not even lose to ‘done’. This is still moving pretty quickly, so bear with me, and it’s tangled stuff. Still, ‘colorful’ doesn’t begin to cover it.

According to the New York Times, this latest chapter started when President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael D. Cohen, met with Felix H. Sater, a Russian-American financier who’s done deals for Trump before, and Andrii V. Artemenko, an obscure, rich, corrupt Ukrainian lawmaker. This meeting was described as happening in “late January”, comfortably obscure about whether it was before or after Trump’s inauguration.

According to the NYT and the Washington Post, Artemenko came with a plan for legitimizing the Russian invasion and occupation of the Crimean Peninsula in the Ukraine. If it worked, it would give Trump “a path” (an excuse?) to remove the sanctions against Russia. Artemenko and Sater presented their plan to Cohen so he could bring it to the White house, and Cohen left with the envelope.

It gets a little weird here. According to what Cohen told the New York Times, he put the envelope on then-National Security Advisor Michael Flynn’s desk.  Flynn was forced out of office within a week, and nothing happened with the plan.

According to what Cohen told the Washington Post a short while later, he only suggested the two conspirators send it by mail to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. But he admits he took the envelope with the full plan with him.

So far, that’s just a ‘he said… um, he said’ story. Make of it what you want, but the Post version seems unlikely.

Cohen has been working for Trump personally since 2007, and is described as a loyal lieutenant. He’d be an ideal guy to negotiate for Trump.

So what was the ‘peace plan’?

1. Artemenko would reveal ‘secrets’ and kompromat against the current Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Poroshenko took power after the famously corrupt, pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was forced out of office in 2014. President Poroshenko has held a hard line against the Russian invasion and their continued occupation.  Using that purportedly damning material and other resources, Artemenko felt he could get Poroshenko removed and hopefully, get his buddy, the pro-Russian, hideously corrupt Yanukovych (currently living in Moscow) re-elected. This possibility was reportedly encouraged by top Putin aides. Artemenko remains closely allied with Prorshenko, and presumably this change would benefit Artemenko.
2. The Crimean peninsula would be hold a referendum to vote on whether to accept Russian leadership. The referendum would be managed by the Russian occupiers. The current Ukrainian leaders have all rejected any such move.
3. Once the Crimean referendum is approved, Russia pays for a 50- or 100-year lease, and then assume semi-legitimate control of Crimea.
4. Since Russia would no longer be illegally occupying a region of the Ukraine, President Trump could, if he wanted, lift the sanctions on Russia, thus allowing many lucrative business deals to resume.

It’s unclear why Trump would be at all interested in a plan that benefits Putin at every stage, with no benefit to the United States, and completely contradicts the existing US stance.

So, what kind of deals? Exxon, for example, holds nearly $100 Billion in leases in Russia (far more than in any other country outside the US) which sit idle now because of the sanctions. Rex Tillerson, the Exxon CEO before Trump made him Secretary of State, does have deep ties to Russia.

Trump had a possible deal building expensive real estate in Russia and the Ukraine, and Artemenko was planning to launder — <cough>, invest — money in the Drake Hotel and other expensive properties in New York City. The status of all those deals, already in the air with Trump’s election, are also frustrated by the sanctions.

Sater helped negotiate a $50M investment by an Icelandic firm backed by Russian sources and allied with Putin. This was poured into a Trump project called Trump SoHo, which was meant to… I don’t care. It failed, anyway.

Trump denies any financial connection to Russia, is now denying he ever worked closely with Sater. Trump insisted under questioning that he wouldn’t even recognize the man, his former senior advisor.

For me, the biggest question is about Trump himself. He’s not an especially good businessman, and after several of his messier bankruptcies, he had serious trouble getting new loans. Until he suddenly got lots of cash. The current rumors are that he got additional loans from China and/or Russia. These would have been ‘loans’ on the order of hundreds of millions of dollars. He couldn’t pay that back.

So, Russia or China? Remember when Eric Trump said that the Trump businesses do a great deal of business with Russia. He emphasized their size, and how much Trump’s business depends on them. And Donald Trump has recently lied about this, denying any connections to Russia whatsoever. His tax returns would probably answer that. We know that Sater was involved with the $50M investment to the failed Trump SoHo project, paid from an Icelandic firm financed by Russian money and with ties to Putin.

It remains odd how Trump continues to show a level of deference to Russian interests that is, at best, unseemly.

Trump’s tax returns would answer a lot of this. Leaves you wondering why he still won’t release them. Before the election, you could argue it might threaten his election when people found out how little he really paid in taxes. Now that he’s in, though, that reason falls away.

It’s worth noting that Trump remains a singularly terrible liar. You’d think that someone who lies as frequently as Trump would be better at it. I mean, it’s not as if he doesn’t get enough practice.